http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickferri/2012/06/11/star-fund-managers-and-flame-out-rates/
A nice quick read with some supporting numbers regarding the likelihood that active fund managers who have outperformed their indexes in the past will do so again.
Not surprisingly, fewer continue to outperform than one would even expect from sheer dumb luck. This, of course, further strengthens the case for low-expense, passive, index or index-like investments.
Meyers Wealth Management 